Things I’ve Seen

Yesterday I had my 1,000th visitor

White House Probed Over Leak

Everyone is talking about it - or if they aren’t, they should be. I don’t know much about those unwritten rules of US politics, but I’d guess that ‘Never piss off the CIA’ would have to be near the top.

Atrios and Body and Soul seems the pick of the commentary

Read it here.

People often ask me: ”Dave, as a leading candidate for president yourself, can you be unbiased when you write about the other candidates?”

Yes. When I believe that my opponents are wrong, I will point that out. But, by the same token, when I believe that my opponents are having carnal relations with livestock, I will point that out, too. ”Fair and balanced,” that is my legally trademarked motto.

Kos refers to this poll showing Bush losing in Arizona. Now what interests me is that if you take the states won by Al Gore in 2000, and add Arizona, that’s enough. The Democrats get 270 electoral college votes to 268. This is a cool tool for these sort of matters.

You know, there’s something about having a new “Bush Unelectable” every day. And I’ve even had to skip this poll.

Bush Unelectable (5)
Bush Unelectable (4)
Bush Unelectable (3)
Bush Unelectable (2)
Bush Unelectable

The most important task for those on the progressive side of politics is to change the political landscape such that liberal ideas can command majority support. In practice this means convincing people who have previously not shared our view of the world to change their minds.

If we are to succeed in this, I believe there is one fact above all else that we must understand. Minds, for the most part, are not changed by facts, or by arguments, but by a compelling narrative. We all know how facts which do not fit with our view of the world are distrusted, distorted, ignored - there is nothing malicious about this, it’s just the way that the human mind works.

To get someone to change their views, you need to present them with a narrative that meets three basic requirements:

• It must encompass their past views
• It must require a change of view
• It mustn’t make them look bad or stupid

We tend to focus on the second point - drumming home reasons to change - but if we do not meet the first and third points as well, we might as well be talking Ancient Greek.

To take an example - I want to convice a hypothetical friend, who voted for George Bush in 2000, to vote against him in 2004. Suppose I say… “Look, you can see all the things Bush is getting wrong, I’ve been telling you since 2000 that he was a disaster, now it’s just clearer and clearer, you can’t possibly vote for him again, can you?” … and I illustrate with many examples of Bush’s failures, both before and after he became president.

What narrative, what story, am I asking them to accept? That Bush was bad back in 2000, that those of us who were smart enough saw it even then, that we’ve been proved right by events. To accept this story, the listener has to accept that they were wrong - stupid even - to vote for Bush in 2000. It’s not going to happen.

Now, suppose I instead say … “You know, it’s a shame that Bush hasn’t turned out to be as good a president as we had hoped. Nice enough guy, but he just doesn’t seem to be up to the big job. He’s been such a disappointment.”. Now you will not enjoy saying it as much, but the story you are asking the listener to accept is that they, along with many others, gave Bush the chance to prove himself, and he’s turned out not to be up for it. Time to let someone else take on the responsibility.

In this story, the listener acted reasonably in the past, and if he acts differently now, by voting Democrat, there is no admission of wrong, no internal conflict.

To convert a conservative to being progressive, we need to tell them a story which explains why it was ok for them to be conservative in the past, but how the changes that have taken place make the progressive view the one for the present. “You haven’t moved, the Republicans have” is much more likely to change a vote than “Republicans are, and always have been, wrong”.

This story is harder to tell, but worth the effort.

I don’t know where this originated from (if you do, let me know so I can credit), but I found it while clearing out my Inbox. Original email dated Jan 28th 2003, so some parts look quite prescient.

If you cannot find Osama, bomb Iraq.
If the markets are a drama, bomb Iraq.
If the terrorists are frisky,
Pakistan is looking shifty,
North Korea is too risky,
Bomb Iraq.

If we have no allies with us, bomb Iraq.
If we think someone has dissed us, bomb Iraq.
So to hell with the inspections,
Let’s look tough for the elections,
Close your mind and take directions,
Bomb Iraq.

It’s “pre-emptive non-aggression”, bomb Iraq.
Let’s prevent this mass destruction, bomb Iraq.
They’ve got weapons we can’t see,
And that’s good enough for me
‘Cos it’all the proof I need
Bomb Iraq.

If you never were elected, bomb Iraq.
If your mood is quite dejected, bomb Iraq.
If you think Saddam’s gone mad,
With the weapons that he had,
(And he tried to kill your dad),
Bomb Iraq.

If your corporate fraud is growin’, bomb Iraq.
If your ties to it are showin’, bomb Iraq.
If your politics are sleazy,
And hiding that ain’t easy,
And your manhood’s getting queasy,
Bomb Iraq.

Fall in line and follow orders, bomb Iraq.
For our might knows not our borders, bomb Iraq.
Disagree? We’ll call it treason,
Let’s make war not love this season,
Even if we have no reason,
Bomb Iraq

NBC Poll: Bush rating lowest ever

George W. Bush is in the worst political trouble of his presidency, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Wednesday night. Bush’s approval rating now stands at 49 percent, the lowest point of his tenure.

Discussion at Kos as usual.
Bush Unelectable (4)
Bush Unelectable (3)
Bush Unelectable (2)
Bush Unelectable
Update - this is up at Dean as well.

[Edited on 13th December, to add a link to the unelectable GWB.

William Rivers Pitt has written the best take on Bush’s speech I’ve yet seen.

There is not enough grammar in the entirety of the English language to describe the incredible international humiliation that has befallen the United States of America. That this humiliation was brought down upon the American people by the man supposedly in charge of the country is, in all honesty, no big surprise for those who have been watching this all unfold. The layers of crushing embarrassment have been building like river sediment for months upon months upon months. On Tuesday, however, George W. Bush managed to completely obliterate the hard-won standing the United States has earned within the global community….

But late yesterday, Things I’ve Seen served it’s 1000th page view.

To put this in perspective, Kos gets 52,000 per day.

Copy of the Google Cache of Black Box Voting. Just in case.

See discussion at Kos